Given their cyclic recurrence, desert locust outbreaks will continue to be a hazard in the future, and may become more frequent and severe as climatic changes, including ocean warming, foster weather conditions that are favorable for breeding and swarm migration.

Desert locust outbreak

The recent East Africa locust outbreak has provided an example of how manageable risks spin out of control. Locust infestations are well known since antiquity, but in the past 120 years humans have generally become much better at managing locusts, having learned how to contain them before they turn into large infestations. However, despite this knowledge and experience, bad management and political instability can still cause locust management to fail. This case relates also to the conduct of war in and by certain states.

Starting in 2018, a series of unfortunate events and missed opportunities unfolded, allowing swarms of desert locusts to form and spread across 23 countries on multiple continents between 2019 and 2021. They devoured their weight in vegetation every day. A swarm covering 1 km² consumes as much food as 35,000 people in one day. One mega-swarm alone, measured in Kenya in 2020, covered an area the size of Luxemburg.

First, political conflict and insecurity in Yemen and, later, in Somalia rendered some breeding areas inaccessible even after they were known. That was one missed opportunity to curb the locust outbreak. Then a series of climate change-related cyclones created favorable breeding conditions for locusts in the Arabian Peninsula, boosting the migration of swarms far into Africa and Southeast Asia. There, they not only destroyed crops, but also fodder for farm animals to the point of their starvation. Ultimately, the large-scale vegetation loss directly threatened the livelihoods and nutrition of an estimated 42 million people already at risk from food insecurity.

Missing crucial intervention points due to regional and local barriers to management led to 23 countries facing serious impacts over food security and livelihoods. Some of the root causes of the recent locust infestations have been:

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