Six issues that will dominate COP30
As the world gathers in Belém, Brazil for the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), it marks the start of what observers say will be a decisive decade in the battle against climate change.
COP30 is taking place after two consecutive years of record-high global temperatures and continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, international relationships – so key to climate diplomacy – are being strained by wars, trade disputes and differing views of the future of the global energy system.
“This has the potential to be one of the most consequential climate COPs of the last decade,” said Ruth Do Coutto, the Deputy Director of the Climate Change Division of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). “But there is no doubt: we are facing some serious headwinds.”
From cutting emissions to protecting forests, and strengthening adaptation finance and early warning systems, here are six issues delegates are expected to grapple with in Belém.
1. How to prevent runaway global warming
Despite some progress, the latest round of national climate plans still fall well short of what’s necessary to keep the worst effects of climate change at bay. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025, released on the eve of COP30, shows current commitments put the world on a path of 2.3–2.5°C of warming by the end of the century. We are very likely to overshoot 1.5°C within the next decade — the priority now is to keep that overshoot as small and short as possible.
As such, COP30 countries will be under pressure to show how they will limit that overshoot and deliver deeper emissions cuts, especially in high-emitting sectors like energy, industry, and transport.
2. How to protect communities from climate impacts
Like previous COPs, Belém will focus on how countries can brace themselves for the extreme weather and rising seas expected to accompany climate change.
Developing nations will need more than US$310 billion every year by 2035 to adapt to this climactic fallout. They now have access to just a tiny fraction of that total, found UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2025.
Investing in preparedness is not only the right thing to do, it pays off. Every dollar invested in early warning systems can save up to fifteen dollars in avoided losses. The so-called Glasgow commitment to double adaptation finance expires this year, making it essential for COP30 to establish a new and credible global adaptation finance goal and the indicators framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation.
3. How to make good on a trillion-dollar promise
In the days before COP30, Azerbaijan, which hosted COP29, and Brazil put forward a roadmap for mobilizing US$1.3 trillion a year in climate financing for developing countries by 2035.
Scarce public funds must be used to attract private capital at scale for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. Developed countries must lead through multilateral development bank reform, effective debt solutions, and instruments that crowd in private investment at scale — turning finance pledges into financial flows.
4. How to leverage creative solutions to the climate crisis
COP30 will highlight commitments from several novel efforts to counter climate change.
That includes the Beat the Heat Implementation Drive, led by Brazil and the UNEP-led Cool Coalition. This flagship effort is designed to support local-level solutions to extreme heat and scale up the use of sustainable cooling solutions (cool roofs, urban green spaces, early warning systems). At the same time, Brazil’s “Bairro do Mutirão para Cidades, Água e Infraestrutura” neighbourhood at COP30 showcases practical solutions for low-carbon and climate-resilient buildings, such as low-carbon materials and sustainable cooling technologies. These solutions are brought together in the Buildings & Cooling Pavilion, powered by the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction (GlobalABC) and the Cool Coalition under UNEP.
UNEP, together with partners, will launch the Food Waste Breakthrough, a five-year plan for governments, cities, food businesses and stakeholders to cut 50 per cent off food waste by keeping food out of landfills, resulting in a reduction of up to 7 per cent of global methane emissions.
Finally, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a timely and transformative mechanism that pays countries to keep forests standing through blended finance. Working alongside jurisdictional REDD+, it can provide more than half the funding needed to protect and conserve the world’s tropical forests and the communities that depend on them.
These launches are part of a larger COP30 push to chart a path toward a sustainable and more resilient future.
5. How to ensure fair and inclusive transitions
The economic benefits of climate action have never been stronger: renewables offer the lowest-cost electricity on Earth and allow countries to protect their economies from volatile fossil fuel markets, while providing jobs, growth, and better health.
Tackling short-lived climate pollutants such as methane, the second-largest contributor to global warming after CO₂, can reduce global temperature rise, counter air pollution and significantly support decarbonization efforts at a very low cost, especially in the oil and gas sector
Yet, we need to ensure that workers, vulnerable communities impacted by climate change, and regions dependent on high-carbon industries are not left behind.
Expected at COP30 is a decision on the proposed Belém Action Mechanism for Just Transition. This work will articulate how governments and the private sector can put people at the centre of national and sectoral transitions. This includes job creation and worker training, and diversification strategies into climate planning and investment.
6. How to recapture the mojo of Paris
When the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, it brought with it hope that humanity could turn the tide against climate change. Without it, we’d be heading for 3-3.5°C degrees of warming. Today, we’re tracking closer to 2.3-2.5°C. The latter figure could still prove devastating for billions of people around the world. That’s why many are saying COP30 must reignite the spirit of the historic 2015 COP21 in Paris, kicking off a “decade of delivery” where climate commitments turn into action on the ground.
“There is still time for humanity to avoid the worst of the impacts of climate change,” said UNEP’s Do Coutto. “But we need to act now, and we need to act decisively, just like we did a decade ago.”
Photo: Francisca Arara, the head of Acre’s Indigenous Peoples Secretariat, says Indigenous groups are providing a “service to the world” by countering deforestation, seen as crucial to limiting climate change. Source: UNEP/Florian Fussstetter.
